Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Analysis challenges U.S. claim of Iranian missile involvement
Weapons experts have challenged the U.S. assertion that an Iranian missile struck Lamerd on the war’s opening day, citing key visual and technical discrepancies. Six independent analysts, who studied footage of the attack, argued the weapon in question was not an Iranian missile but rather a U.S. Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). Their critique focused on the missile’s appearance, blast radius, flight path, and the number of strikes observed in the area.
Centcom’s denial and BBC Verify’s follow-up
Iranian officials reported 21 casualties, including four children, from the Lamerd attack. The BBC Verify team initially linked the incident to a U.S. missile, based on its appearance and blast characteristics. However, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) later refuted this, claiming the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile. “US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,” Centcom stated in its March 31 report.
“After looking into the reports, U.S. Central Command has confirmed the accusations are false,” said US Navy Capt Tim Hawkins. “U.S. forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury,” he added, noting the missile in the video appeared “twice as long, consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.”
Expert analysis highlights key differences
Analysts from Janes and McKenzie Intelligence disputed Centcom’s conclusion, emphasizing distinct features of the Hoveyzeh missile not visible in the Lamerd footage. Amael Kotlarski, a Janes weapons expert, pointed out the Hoveyzeh’s belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings. “Crucially, no matter the angle from which the missile is viewed, the wings and turbo jet would be visible. None of that is clearly distinguishable from the footage,” he explained.
Another McKenzie Intelligence expert noted the absence of wings or an external engine in the video. They highlighted “canard fins,” a PrSM characteristic, as visible in the footage. “I remain convinced that the weapon seen is a PrSM and not an Iranian Hoveyzeh Cruise Missile—the two are vastly different in appearance,” the analyst said. Trevor Ball, from Bellingcat, also argued the missile’s length and silhouette matched the PrSM more closely.
Additional strikes reported in Minab
On the same day as the Lamerd attack, nearly 400km east, strikes targeted an Iranian school and military base in Minab, resulting in 168 deaths. Expert analysis suggested a U.S. Tomahawk missile hit the military compound. Despite the low-resolution footage, a mid-air explosion is clearly visible, aligning with the PrSM’s airburst capability. This feature disperses fragments over a wider area, a trait observed in advanced missile systems.
