Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
The 1991 Gulf War
Three decades ago, during the early stages of the Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush delivered a speech that would later haunt him. The address, given at a Patriot missile factory in Massachusetts, came as the U.S.-led coalition launched a massive air campaign against Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Bush hailed the workers behind the advanced interceptors, which were critical to the war effort. Yet, in a brief moment, he outlined a strategy that would set the stage for future consequences.
“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”
Though Bush framed the speech as a call for compliance with UN resolutions, it also hinted at a broader plan to incite unrest. The coalition’s forces were poised to launch a ground invasion, but the president’s rhetoric suggested a reliance on internal pressure rather than direct intervention. This moment, however, was overlooked by the author at the time, who was stationed in Baghdad, covering the conflict as it unfolded.
The Fallout of Inaction
After Iraq’s defeat, a ceasefire allowed Saddam Hussein to remain in power. In the north, Kurdish factions began a rebellion, while Shia groups in the south launched an uprising. Despite the chaos, the coalition nations—America, Britain, France, and others—did not step in to support these movements. The result was a brutal crackdown, with thousands of civilians losing their lives. The author, now in the snowy mountains of Kurdish territory, witnessed the tragic aftermath: fathers carrying the bodies of their children, frozen and buried in the snow.
The lack of support for the uprisings led to a humanitarian crisis, eventually prompting a U.S.-led rescue mission. However, the Shia population in the south faced a harsher fate, with their rebellion crushed by Iraqi forces. The war’s legacy endured, fueling the formation of Al Qaeda as Osama bin Laden, enraged by the presence of foreign troops near Mecca, began to consolidate his extremist network.
Repeating History
Fast forward to today, and the parallels are striking. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have urged Iran’s people to rise against their government, presenting it as an opportunity to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Like Bush’s 1991 strategy, this approach promises support without guaranteeing it. The author reflects on how the previous conflict’s lessons—such as the risks of relying on an uprising without backing—remain relevant.
While the first Gulf War had the backing of UN Security Council resolutions, the current situation lacks such legal foundation. Yet, the strategic move of encouraging internal resistance, with the hope of regime change, echoes the same pattern. The author fears history may repeat itself, with the consequences of inaction once again reshaping the region’s future.
