In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on
In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on
A month into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, initial optimism for regime change has faded. Many Iranians who once believed the attacks would destabilize the Islamic Republic now face a more sober reality. DW interviewed citizens about how the regime’s continued existence has eroded their early hopes. At the start of the conflict, the strikes were seen as a potential catalyst to weaken or topple the government. US President Donald Trump had urged Iranians to seize control of their nation, warning that a better opportunity for overthrow might not arise for generations.
Yet, as the war entered its fourth week, the situation has grown more dire. Civilian targets across Iran have been hit, making daily life increasingly uncertain. The clerical leadership remains in power, and for opponents, this has sparked doubt, weariness, and anxiety. “The government still stands despite the destruction, which has shifted our expectations from optimism to concern,” said a Tehran resident who asked to remain anonymous due to safety fears.
Shift in Public Perception
At the conflict’s onset, some Iranians anticipated foreign military pressure could create a window for unrest. The country had recently endured nationwide protests, met with severe crackdowns by security forces. For dissenters, the strikes were viewed as a chance to break the regime’s grip on society. However, as bombings persist, the focus has shifted from regime collapse to the duration of the war and the toll on civilians. The attack on a girls’ school in Minab exemplified this change, with civilian casualties and rising insecurity becoming part of everyday life.
Despite the threat of air strikes, many Iranians continue to report for work. A Tehran resident explained, “Employees are still required to attend, even as places feel unsafe. Absence could be seen as protest, adding more pressure.” In a repressive system, public participation is closely monitored, and hesitation is often interpreted as a security risk. As destruction spreads, the expectation of lasting political change has dimmed.
Uncertainty and Psychological Impact
Public mood is also shaped by uncertainty about the war’s future. Many fear the Islamic Republic might endure, leaving Iran with compounded challenges: damaged infrastructure, worsening economic conditions, ongoing sanctions, and the possibility of even stricter control. The lack of clarity on US and Israeli objectives has further fueled this apprehension. Babak Dorbeiki, a former deputy at Iran’s Strategic Research Center, noted that Israel and the United States have divergent goals. “Israel seeks collapse, while the US appears focused on other outcomes. This discrepancy leaves the war’s result unclear,” he said.
The psychological strain of the conflict is evident. For many Iranians, the fear is no longer just of regime survival, but of prolonged suffering and the uncertain path forward. As the strikes continue, hope has given way to a sense of enduring unease.
