Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
As tensions escalate in the region, questions arise about the United States’ ability to maintain a prolonged conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump has expressed confidence, claiming the nation possesses a “virtually unlimited” supply of weapons. His defense secretary echoed this sentiment, asserting that Iran has “no hope” of enduring a sustained US military campaign. However, concerns about limited stockpiles of high-grade defensive systems challenge this optimism.
Operation Epic Fury was initiated on February 28, marking the start of a relentless series of strikes. In the subsequent week, the US and its allies targeted thousands of sites across Iran, employing over 20 weapon systems in air, land, and sea operations. Among the initial strikes, the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reported, signaling a significant escalation. Despite this, Trump hinted at the potential for a longer conflict, stating the war could extend beyond the initial four to five weeks.
Weapon Grade Concerns
While the Trump administration emphasizes military readiness, some analysts question the sustainability of the campaign. During a visit to US Central Command in March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth assured that “munitions stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better.” Yet, he acknowledged that the most advanced, long-range missiles and interceptors remain a limiting factor. “We have a good supply but are not where we want to be,” he noted.
“There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “High-grade weapons take time to build. Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in all of 2025. If you asked for one more Patriot today, it would take at least two years to receive it.”
Meanwhile, the cost of defending against Iran’s Shahed-136 drones has raised efficiency concerns. These drones, which cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce, have been countered using fighter jets armed with AIM-9 missiles. Each jet shot costs $450,000, and operating the plane requires $40,000 per hour. “The cost of an hour of fighter jet time equals the price of a Shahed,” Grieco remarked, highlighting the unfavorable cost ratio.
For ballistic missile defense, the US relies on expensive Patriot systems, which cost around $3 million each. According to Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, these missiles are being consumed rapidly. “At the beginning, there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve already used 200-300,” he estimated. This depletion underscores the challenge of maintaining a prolonged defense posture.
Production Scaling and Strategic Adjustments
On March 6, Trump convened with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House emphasized the meeting had been scheduled for weeks, but Grieco questioned the impact of the new agreements. “It felt like a non-announcement,” she said, noting most deals had already been announced in previous months. The key issue, she argued, lies in whether the US can replenish its critical stockpiles swiftly enough to counter Iran’s ongoing attacks.
