Xi’s long game with Trump: What I’ve learned after covering 30 years of US-China ties
Xi’s long game with Trump: What I’ve learned after covering 30 years of US-China ties
Xi s long game with Trump – In the early days of my reporting on U.S.-China relations, the tensions between the two nations often revolved around a trio of contentious issues: Tiananmen, Tibet, and Taiwan. These topics, deeply rooted in China’s domestic policies and international ambitions, dominated headlines during high-level diplomatic encounters. The first two, symbolized by the “T” in the familiar acronym, were tied to the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protests and the status of the Himalayan region under Beijing’s control. Fast forward to the present, and the agenda has shifted dramatically. The latest summit in Beijing between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has brought a new set of priorities to the forefront: tariffs, technology, and Taiwan, with Tehran added as a fourth key issue. This transformation reflects a broader recalibration of the U.S.-China relationship, where economic and strategic concerns now overshadow human rights debates.
From Values to Trade: A Changing Narrative
While Taiwan remains central to China’s strategic calculations—viewed as a critical fulcrum for its global influence—other topics once seen as foundational to the U.S. position have faded in prominence. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who once openly criticized China’s human rights record and faced sanctions for his stance, has grown more reserved on the issue. This shift aligns with a broader trend: the U.S. has increasingly prioritized economic interests over ideological battlegrounds in its dealings with Beijing. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, now plays a more prominent role in steering the bilateral relationship, reflecting a new approach to managing the complex interplay of trade and diplomacy.
Xi Jinping, China’s most influential leader since Mao Zedong’s passing, has demonstrated a mastery of both domestic and international strategy. His consolidation of power has enabled sweeping reforms, reshaping the economy and military with decisive political will. The one-party system, with its centralized control and vast bureaucratic machinery, allows Xi to implement policies with precision. However, this dominance has also created a dynamic where the U.S., once a formidable counterweight, now faces challenges in maintaining its traditional leverage.
Trump’s Legacy: A Double-Edged Sword for China
President Donald Trump’s tenure has left an indelible mark on the global geopolitical landscape, many of which have inadvertently bolstered China’s position. His first term saw a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy, but the impact of his return to the White House in early 2025 has been more pronounced. By upending decades-old trade agreements and security alliances, Trump has introduced a new era of unpredictability. His approach to international relations, often described as transactional, has allowed China to gain ground in several critical areas.
“Nation-Building Trump” is how Chinese social media has branded him—a term that underscores the perception that his policies have accelerated China’s global rise.
One of the most significant shifts has been the U.S. focus on the Middle East. The Iran war, launched under Trump’s administration, has diverted attention from Asia and created a vacuum for China to step in. While the conflict has sparked controversy, it has also allowed Beijing to solidify its economic partnerships, particularly with countries in the region seeking stability. The war’s toll on U.S. resources—especially its ammunition reserves—has further weakened America’s strategic footing, as China controls the global supply of rare earth minerals, vital for military and industrial applications.
Trump’s actions have also influenced how the rest of the world views the U.S. and China. Leaders from both allies and adversaries have increasingly sought to align with Beijing, recognizing its growing influence in global governance. Recent surveys highlight a warming sentiment toward Xi’s China, even among Americans who once saw the U.S. as the dominant superpower. This shift in perception, combined with the tangible economic advantages China has gained, has made Xi’s leadership more formidable than ever.
Economic Realities and Strategic Calculations
China’s economic resilience has become a key asset in its dealings with Trump. Despite challenges such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade and rising inflation, Beijing’s early pivot to green energy has provided a buffer against global volatility. Unlike the U.S., which has struggled to maintain momentum in renewable energy initiatives, China has positioned itself as a leader in this sector. This advantage is particularly relevant as Trump seeks to leverage trade negotiations to pressure China on its global commitments.
Meanwhile, the U.S. grapples with its own economic hurdles. Price wars in manufacturing and service sectors have eroded profit margins, while weak domestic consumption and high youth unemployment have dampened optimism. These issues have given Xi room to maneuver, as he can offer strategic trade deals to offset domestic discontent. For instance, his willingness to purchase billions of dollars worth of American agricultural products and Boeing jets has allowed Trump to tout “deliverables” from the summit ahead of mid-term elections.
The “Board of Trade” concept, proposed by Trump officials, exemplifies this new approach. By creating specialized councils to manage bilateral trade, the U.S. aims to streamline negotiations, but the Chinese have shown they are adept at navigating complex bureaucracies. With over 7 million civil servants, Beijing can respond swiftly to U.S. initiatives, ensuring that its interests are protected. This bureaucratic flexibility has become a tool for maintaining influence, even in the face of American pressure.
Xi’s Vision and the Future of U.S.-China Relations
Xi’s long-term strategy has been clear: to position China as a dominant global power while maintaining a delicate balance with the West. His focus on economic self-reliance, coupled with a strong emphasis on technological innovation, has enabled Beijing to reduce dependence on U.S. markets and infrastructure. This shift is evident in the growing number of countries that are now aligning with China, whether out of economic necessity or strategic calculation.
As the U.S. continues to wrestle with internal divisions and external challenges, China’s ability to adapt and capitalize on these circumstances will determine the trajectory of their relationship. The next phase of U.S.-China diplomacy will likely be defined by the interplay of trade, technology, and geopolitical alliances, with Xi positioned to steer China’s course with calculated precision. The lessons of the past three decades suggest that China’s long-term gains will not be accidental—they are the result of deliberate, strategic choices made by its leadership.
With the world watching, the stakes have never been higher. As Trump’s policies reshape the international order, Xi’s China is poised to emerge as the dominant force in a multipolar world. The 30-year arc of U.S.-China coverage has revealed a pattern: China’s ability to navigate crises and align with global actors ensures its continued ascent, while the U.S. faces a more uncertain path. Whether this dynamic will lead to a new equilibrium or deeper divergence remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—Xi’s long game is far from over.
