White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

White House Advises Staff Against Using Insider Info in Prediction Markets

In March, the White House issued a caution to its personnel about leveraging confidential information for financial gains on prediction platforms. The directive followed a day after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to his plans for military action against Iranian facilities. The email highlighted concerns raised by media outlets regarding officials betting on markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket with non-public data.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended the policy, stating to the BBC,

“Any suggestion that Administration officials are involved in this without proof is unfounded and careless journalism.”

The Wall Street Journal was the first to report on the email. Ingle also emphasized that federal employees must adhere to ethical standards that prevent the misuse of insider information for personal profit.

The BBC has reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for further details. Earlier this year, Polymarket faced scrutiny when an anonymous trader profited nearly half a million dollars from a bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s capture, just before the event was officially confirmed. The account’s blockchain signature revealed its identity, though it remained unclaimed.

Prediction markets, which manage over $44bn in transactions, have gained traction in recent months. These platforms allow users to wager on diverse events, from sports outcomes to economic decisions like Federal Reserve interest rate changes or election results. Their growing influence has sparked discussions about regulatory oversight, particularly in conflict-related bets.

This week, Democrat Congressman Ritchie Torres, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, requested an inquiry into “questionable” trades from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The commission oversees derivatives, including prediction markets. In March, Democratic leaders proposed a bill to prohibit betting on military actions or wars.

Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey described the current state of prediction markets as

“A breeding ground for corruption and exploitation, with gaps in rules allowing manipulation.”

He argued that such practices benefit a select group while disadvantaging working Americans.