Has US achieved its war objectives in Iran?

Has US achieved its war objectives in Iran?

With a fragile ceasefire currently in effect, the question remains whether the United States has met its strategic goals in the ongoing conflict with Iran. Since the initial strikes, the narrative surrounding the war has been shaped by the Pentagon, where Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, a former Army National Guard Major and Fox News commentator, has delivered press briefings steeped in rhetoric. His televised monologues have emphasized American military dominance, celebrating achievements like “a capital V military victory” and “death and destruction from the sky all day long” in early updates. Yet, uncovering the true progress and consequences of the war requires deeper analysis beyond the headlines.

Trump’s primary aim was to halt Iran’s nuclear program, a goal Iran has consistently denied. However, this objective had long been pursued through U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, notably the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump argued the agreement was too lenient, and in his first term, he effectively withdrew from it by reimposing sanctions on Tehran. This shift toward military force, exemplified by the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, set a pattern of alternating between diplomatic overtures and aggressive actions. The current war is the latest chapter in this cycle, but so far, no substantial breakthrough has been confirmed.

Despite claims of obliterating Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the country still maintains its enriched uranium stockpile. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted that military operations alone may not halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump has vowed to collaborate with Iran to “dig up and remove all of the deeply buried… Nuclear Dust,” but Tehran’s leadership remains resolute. The new administration’s approach—combining a weakened Iranian regime with heightened tensions—could influence upcoming negotiations in Islamabad. A more skeptical leadership might even bolster Iran’s resolve to pursue nuclear capabilities as a deterrent against future U.S. attacks.

Trump’s declaration of war, aired on social media from Mar-a-Lago, included the goal of regime change, urging Iranians to overthrow their government once the US-Israeli strikes paused. Within days, he demanded “unconditional surrender,” a demand yet to be fulfilled. While Israel has targeted key figures, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba has been named as his successor. Trump claims the new leadership is “less radicalised and far more intelligent” than before, hoping to replicate the outcome in Venezuela where he ousted President Maduro. But in Tehran, there is no clear evidence of such a shift.

The war has also taken a toll on U.S. forces, with thirteen service members killed and hundreds injured. Officials assert that Iran’s conventional military assets—missiles, drones, and arm factories—have been severely weakened. However, leaked intelligence suggests Iran retains approximately half of its pre-war arsenal. The BBC has yet to confirm these claims. Regardless, the Trump administration’s objectives have evolved since the conflict began, and the dream of regime change has not materialised. Munitions have been consumed rapidly, but the cost of this effort continues to mount.