Trump’s Hormuz deadline looms but Asian nations have already struck deals with Iran
Trump’s Hormuz deadline looms but Asian nations have already struck deals with Iran
US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Monday, vowing to eliminate Iran “in one night” if an agreement to restore access to the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t reached by Tuesday at 20:00 Washington DC time (00:00GMT Wednesday). However, prior to this ultimatum, multiple nations had already secured arrangements with Tehran to ensure their vessels could navigate the crucial waterway. Asian countries, notably the Philippines, have been proactive in negotiating these agreements, driven by their economic reliance on Gulf energy exports.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a global focal point following Iran’s retaliation against US and Israeli airstrikes. Tehran’s threat to target ships in the strait triggered a spike in oil prices, as the narrow passage handles a fifth of the world’s energy shipments. Trump recently asserted that the US no longer needed Gulf oil, pushing countries dependent on the region’s energy to deploy warships and take the lead in resuming trade.
Regional diplomacy and assurances
Several Asian nations, including Pakistan, India, and the Philippines, have reached understandings with Iran to permit safe passage for their ships. China also confirmed that some of its vessels traversed the strait, though details remained vague. Concerns persist about the extent of these agreements, with experts like Dimitris Maniatis from Marisks noting uncertainties about whether they apply universally or selectively to certain flags.
“Countries reliant on Gulf energy are now realizing they must engage with Iran to ensure shipments resume,” stated Roc Shi from the University of Technology Sydney.
The Philippines, a recent addition to this list, finalized a deal with Iran after a productive phone conversation on Thursday. Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro described the agreement as “vital” for maintaining energy and fertilizer supplies. The nation imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East and was the first to declare a national energy emergency when petrol prices doubled during the Iran war.
Iran’s strategic flexibility
Uncertainty remains regarding Tehran’s claim that the strait is open to all countries except the US and its allies. Roger Fouquet from the National University of Singapore’s Energy Studies Institute highlighted the Philippines’ case as intriguing, suggesting Iran might be willing to “compartmentalize” its alliances. “Iran appears to be distinguishing between a country’s alliance and its active role in the conflict,” he noted.
Pakistan announced on March 28 that 20 of its ships had received permission to pass through the strait. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar called this a “constructive gesture,” praising Iran’s efforts to ease tensions through diplomacy. Similarly, the Iranian Embassy in India reiterated its support for Indian-flagged vessels, stating, “Our Indian friends are in safe hands, no worries.”
“The passage of our tankers was the outcome of diplomatic efforts,” said India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in March.
China’s role and lingering questions
China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, confirmed recent shipments through the strait without specifying Iran’s involvement. A foreign ministry spokeswoman mentioned coordination with relevant parties but offered no further details. Vessel-tracking data reveal that despite the war, millions of barrels of US-sanctioned Iranian oil continue to reach China, underscoring the country’s strategic interests.
It is unclear whether the terms of these safe passage agreements involve payments or other concessions. As the deadline approaches, the international community watches closely to see if Trump’s threat will prompt a broader resolution or leave the strait’s future in question.
