Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Operation Epic Fury Unfolds
On February 28, the United States initiated “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, marking the start of a sustained military campaign. Over the subsequent week, thousands of strikes were executed across the country, utilizing more than 20 distinct weapon systems through air, land, and sea operations.
US Confidence in Weapon Stocks
President Donald Trump asserted that the US possesses a “virtually unlimited” supply of armaments, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the nation’s readiness. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to maintain this campaign indefinitely,” Hegseth stated during a visit to US Central Command in Florida. General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair, echoed this sentiment, claiming “sufficient precision munitions are available for both offensive and defensive operations.”
Challenges in High-Grade Munitions
Despite these assurances, concerns have emerged regarding the availability of top-tier weapons. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, highlighted that the most critical systems—long-range missiles and interceptors—are in short supply. “There are real limitations on stockpiles at the highest grade,” she noted. Trump, in a post on Truth Social, acknowledged this, stating, “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better… but we are not where we want to be.”
Cost of Sustained Operations
The financial strain of the conflict has become apparent. Iran’s Shahed 136 drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have been countered by US forces using fighter jets and AIM-9 missiles. Grieco pointed out, “The cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the price of a Shahed drone. It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.” She also suggested the US could adopt cheaper alternatives, like interceptor drones used in Ukraine, which are less expensive than Shahed models.
Production Adjustments and Stockpile Concerns
Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned that high-grade defense systems such as Patriot missiles are depleting rapidly. “We’ve used up a significant portion of the initial 1,000 Patriots,” he estimated, noting that 200-300 have already been deployed. With only 620 PAC-3 interceptors produced in 2025, Cancian stressed that manufacturing these advanced systems could take up to two years. For shorter-range weapons like bombs and Hellfire missiles, the situation appears more stable, as “ground munitions are adequate for prolonged use,” he said.
Efforts to Boost Supply
In response to these challenges, Trump convened with defense firms on March 6, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House framed the meeting as a long-planned initiative. However, Grieco questioned the urgency, calling it a “non-announcement” since many of the agreements had already been disclosed. Lockheed Martin’s commitment to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year remains publicly announced, offering a glimmer of hope for replenishing critical stockpiles.
