How long can Iran continue the war?
How Long Can Iran Continue the War?
Iran faces a formidable challenge in its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, operating largely without direct allies. The country’s strategy centers on its missile and drone arsenal, with no signs of yielding to pressure. This approach has been emphasized by Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, who stated during the third day of the conflict:
“We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”
Military Operations and Targets
Since February 28, the US and Israel have launched a joint, large-scale attack on Iran, focusing on key leaders and critical government installations. Despite losing several high-ranking officials, the theocratic regime remains stable. In response, Tehran has targeted Israel and neighboring Gulf nations, including US bases, with missile and drone strikes. The UAE has reported being hit by hundreds of Iranian projectiles in recent days.
By March 4, the Israeli military noted that Iran had launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones, according to US Central Command. However, these numbers may be inflated due to the destruction of storage sites by US-Israeli strikes. Satellite images suggest attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Tabriz, with damaged underground facilities and collapsed tunnels.
Drones and Strategic Resilience
Iran’s drone production capacity appears robust, with reports indicating the ability to manufacture around 5,000 units monthly. These Shahed drones are deployed from makeshift scaffolds, which can be assembled rapidly. A single drone costs Iran several thousand dollars, far less than the $3 million price tag for a US-made Patriot missile.
Analysts from the New York Times, citing satellite data and verified footage, claim Iran used short-range missiles and drones to strike US bases in the Middle East, disrupting communication and radar systems at seven locations. The secrecy of US infrastructure complicates exact assessments, but the attacks signal a deliberate effort to undermine coordination efforts.
Expert Perspectives on Duration
Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics, suggested Iran is leveraging the conflict to buy time.
“Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time,”
he told DW. The regime’s focus on resilience—surviving strikes and continuing to retaliate—reflects a calculated strategy. While some missile launchers may have been destroyed, the exact number of functional systems remains unclear, with experts noting both losses and hidden stockpiles.
